DA Wolf Mafia #5 (Mafia wins!)

First topic message reminder :







Town:


Mafia:


Wolves:



Role Setup:

Townsfolk
Townsfolk
Townfolk
Townfolk
Doctor
Sheriff
-----------
Godfather
Mafioso

-----------
Wolf


Participants:

1. Alisae
2. Lux
3. DanelerH
4. Bladecharge
5. jjh927
6. LightYagami5
7. faervel
8. CrimsonOverlord
9. Debi



Last edited by NightBot on Wed Feb 15, 2017 5:01 pm; edited 3 times in total

Ofc i dont my dude. You know it all. Your arguments are toppest of top, keep it up. What the hell do i say? I said im town, nah bs im scum. I attck you ,nah bs you dont know jack shit and are full of shit. I make my suspicions, nah bro thats not how pros play. You tell me what do then, except for oh wait, you have been telling us how to play mafia the right way since hour 1 of this game nonstop

Pro or not pro if you are town and vote yourself is bad for the game...

Crimson, as I worked out earlier, even going in completely random, if we lynch in day 1 we have a 60% chance of starting day 2 with at least 1 scum dead. In my opinion, 4-1-1 and 4-2 are better positions for town than the one we're in right now, though 4-2 is MyLo. (Plus, we can get to better positions than that- these are worst cases assuming that 60% chance goes well.)

Alisae's approach to this game appears to be primarily psychological, which I have no real issue with. I used to have an issue with it, but on reviewing conflicts, especially my own, Alisae is quite reasonable. It's not so much my playstyle, but I do admit I dabble in it both passively and actively. I would not have expected to lynch in day 1 either, but in this setup it is honestly the most logical option.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Thor665#Self_Voting_as_Town
If you truly are town that was a really really annoying play.
And just so you know the remaining votes on you where mine,Dan,Lux&Debi's if you hadn't done that.

I doubt if I would lynch you easily since last voting someone kinda bothers me and I am not sure how much time we have till day ends but I think I would AT LEAST argue till then.
Lux is vs day 1 lynch.
Debi is on to Alisae and he doesn't look like he's changing his mind...
Dan MIGHT have lynched you but you really shouldn't suicide just cause you MIGHT die

Now I needed this off my chest I actually have minor analysis and I post them ASAP as soon as I get them in order before night falls.

Debi's push on me is bad but I honestly don't think it's scum motivated.

NightBot wrote:

[color=#ff6600]Exceptions: Someone receives the majority of lynch votes (5) or (5) "/vote: No Day" are put, in either case, the day will end immediately.

My reads:
1.If crims is town:
By suspicious order:
BladeCharge(vote priority)
Light(cause was pretty fast to vote Crims)
Lux(Never got the chance to see if he would vote Crims or not...and I blame Crims himself for this.)
Alisae(Sorry kinda mafia vibes here and there I state a lil' later where on another post)
Debi
DanelerH(Same argument as Lux)
Jjh(Least suspicious though both him and Alisae have high priority of being the wolf specially Alisae)
2.If crims is mafia:
I don't think that's a busing so I'mma put Alisae outta suspicious zone.
Light is also off the suspicious zone.
Others at same place.
3.If Crims is wolf:
Almost same thing as town minus the wolf arguments.

My opinion is that @CrimsonOverlord has been overreacting and haven't been really contributing to the progression of the game. Personally, I think that if you accuse someone you should be ready for an argument because it's logical that a x person will defend themselves. 

Imo, there are 2 possible scenarios regarding jj and bote; 

1.) One of them is Mafia
2.) None of them is Mafia


Scum wouldn't play it that long and that far because it slips away too much info. Especially taking into the consideration the fact that they couldn't talk about it because there has been no nights.

Is Crimson Town or not, it's too late to think about it because he hammered himself. I'm glad he's out of the game because his attidute has been bad for the game and got things too personal - plus his latest actions were anti-town (if you are town and one lynch short to get misslynched you simply don't lock the lynch, it's unfair to the other Towns).

I hope you will calm down and re-think about this game. And eventually start playing again. 

By the way, @faervel why are you disturbed by my 'lack of presence' in Day 1?

P.S. no I would not vote CrimsonOverlord.

faervel wrote:

Also 2nd thing that's wrong with calling this a theater is...I am not sure about this so I need @Nightbot (Or mafia if they are nice enough :3)to confirm this but every previous game we played we never had a "mafia day chat" to discuss strategies and it only happened at night and this kinda theater requires at least a lil' communication before and there has been no nights yet. "What if they discussed it before game?" that COULD happen if it was 2 people like...me&Crims maybe but Dazo&jj were COMPLETE STRANGERS to each other before this game.I doubt if Dazo even knew that jj liked mafia this much and I doubt that jj even knows that Dazon also goes by the name Dazo here.

There is only a Night Chat. The Mafia players cannot speak outside of it, unless they choose to break that rule, but that would just ruin the fun.

Day 1 has ended. CrimsonOverlord was lynched. He was a Townfolk! Night 1 has begun, it will end on 2/12/17 in the night (GMT-6) or once all night actions have been submitted and the folks who sent them desire the night to end.

Debi (Sheriff) was killed by the Mafia last night.
Day 2 has begun, it will end on 2/16/17. It takes 4 votes to skip the day & 4 votes to lock a lynch.

Roles Remaining:

Townsfolk
Townfolk
Townfolk
Doctor
-----------
Mafioso
Godfather
-----------
Wolf

Players Remaining:

@Alisae
@Lux
@DanelerH
@Bladecharge
@jjh927
@LightYagami5
@faervel

well i got a feeling that i am probably going to get targeted

Bladecharge wrote:

well i got a feeling that i am probably going to get targeted

Why?

Note:  This post was writen over the course of Night 1.  Suspicions in this post my change based on the actions taken during Night 1.  I will review my thoughts based on the death tomorrow.  It is currently late for me.

I'm going to start by addressing the concerns @Alisae has about me.

Alisae wrote:

DanelerH wrote:

A.  My bad.  I didn't word that very well.  Let me clarify what I think of Faervel, then.  I think that Faervel is tunneling, but that isn't necessarily indicative of being Mafia.  I do, however, find Faervel suspicious due to the bad reasons xe had for voting to lynch Alisae.  (If you want me to go into more detail on that, I will, but I'll leave it at that for now.)  I don't find that enough of a reason to place a vote, though, so I am waiting to see what others say, as there may be someone I would rather place my vote on.

A. Gladly do go into more detail. Why isn't it enough reason to place a vote?

The biggest reason why we would want to lynch Faervel at that point would be because xe was reaching for reasons to lynch Alisae.  I didn't think it was enough of a reason to vote for a lynch because we were still in the early game.  At that point, there are very few things to base suspicion on, so a lot of people would be reaching for reasons, whether they be Town or Mafia.  If it were to occur later in the game, then I would find it more likely to come from Mafia, as they could be getting desperate.  So, yes, it was reason to suspect Faervel slightly, but not enough for my vote.

Alisae wrote:

DanelerH wrote:

B.  The second sentence half right.  I do care in the sense that if JJ is Town, continuing to make those kinds of posts will only hurt xyr credibility.  If xe continues saying nothing, xe could be the one who ends up lynched.

B. Then grill them instead of saying "They should talk more."

I'm not going to continue this argument.  You're right; I should have properly questioned JJ.  It was my mistake not to.

Next, @Faervel was wondering whether or not I would have hammered the lynch on Crimson.  I would have considered it.  The lack of any defense bothered me.

Finally, regarding the argument between Alisae and JJ, I don't think Debi is correct about a Scum Theatre.  While I could see it on Day 2 and onward, it would have been too risky on Day 1, due to a lack of planning.  Short of that, I can't decide if I think it's TvT or a TvS.  If it's TvS, I feel that JJ is more likely to be the Scum based on posts prior to and during the argument with Alisae, though the posts afterwards seem more Towny.  For now, I'll lean TvT.


Town:
Crimson

Town-lean:
Alisae
Debi

Null:
JJ
Lux
Light
Faervel

Mafia-lean:
Blade (first vote on Crimson)

why well i called a vote that killed a Towny now people may think i am Maifa.

Oh lol this started.
Catching up.

Debi was cop?
Really?
Then that ruins my townread on Light.
I thought Light cop told but guess not. Gonna re-read his post later.

Bladecharge wrote:

well i got a feeling that i am probably going to get targeted

Why you so self-conscious?

Bladecharge wrote:

why well i called a vote that killed a Towny now people may think i am Maifa.

Nah. If you're scum it's becuase you coasted D1 without actually doing anything. Not because you voted Crimmy. Tho you popping back in and not taking your RVS vote down is sus.

Dan your townread on Crimmy is cute btw.

In light of the events of day 1, I am now thoroughly convinced that lightyagami5 is scum. Not just any scum; mafia scum. So let's hold up on the lynching, because today we want the wolf.

First up, let us consider that the mafia attacked Debi. Why? My personal theory here is that the mafia believe they can spin me and Alisae's earlier conflict further and get a mislynch, but I feel there is now nobody alive who went along with that. Except for lightyagami5.

If you are town my next target if I don't die at night will be my my first one Alisae and maybe jj depends on how things will go...

Here, he blames me and Alisae for the vote on Crimson preemptively, even though he also took part in it.

Pfff I am in a difficult spot...I really want to change my vote to CrimsonOverlord now but Alisae is suspicious too,maybe the flow of the game make me decide which is more scummy(or maybe both).
Well I want to change my vote to Crimson but that would be suspicious now that jj is starting to suspect me...Oh well who cares?

Alisae and jj wrote one and a half page only to say at the end that they are cool? Hey what?
Debi may be a scum but he is soooo right!
I don't think my vote will change...as the time goes I am more and more sure that Alisae is a scum.The only thing that has changed is that before I was sure he is werewolf but now I don't know if he is werewolf or mafia...

I feel like every single one of lightyagami's posts is full of paranoia and attempts to dump suspicion on Alisae. This has happened from the very beginning, too. He has an agenda. The fact that he is so downright aggressive towards Alisae and mafia's first moves hint at that same aggressiveness seems to point to me that he is mafia.


But I'm going to follow that up. I'm firmly confident that Alisae and Faervel are both town. My general instinct tells me that DanelerH is town. The remaining 2 I haven't spoken about are Bladecharge and Lux. My gut tells me the second mafia is inexperienced, as I think someone more vocal and knowledgeable of the game would have hit someone other than Debi, especially considering my own suspicions of him before his death. So I reckon that Bladecharge is the second mafia.

Which leaves only Lux, who I believe to be the wolf. In amidst his few comments, he's left a few little gems.

After reading page and half all I can tell is that only @Debi makes sense.

Imo, there are 2 possible scenarios regarding jj and bote;

1.) One of them is Mafia
2.) None of them is Mafia

While lynching one of me and Alisae was possible, Lux was willing to just about tip his hat to the idea of doing so. Later on, after we had led the charge on Crimson, he's fine to accept that we weren't pulling an extraordinarily elaborate theatre play.

So there are my calls, plain and simple. Lightyagami and bladecharge are the mafia, while lux is the wolf. We should prioritise the wolf.

There's a popular saying in SC2 mafia. "Red always maf." Guess sometimes it's true.


Oh, and on another note, there was no wolf kill. That means the doctor got it right. There are three people who know who was targetted: the target, the wolf, and the doctor. So, we have a way of confirming that someone is either the wolf or the doctor, and we have a way of confirming that someone is not the wolf.


However, I'm interested to see what the rest of my townreads think about this, because I'm not 100% sure that Lux is even scum, let alone specifically the wolf. This bit was by process of elimination. It may be advantageous to go for a safer kill on mafia. On the other hand, if we lynch a mafia and then lose 2 towns, we're 2-1-1, which is a town loss. If we go for the mafia, we're going to need the doctor to guess another one right, or for both scum to target the same person. If we get the wolf, the worst case scenario is 3-2.

Oh yeah, also we may as well be MyLo. Technically, the gamestate in which we mislynch here would still be winnable, but we're kinda fucked if we do it.

A. Your vote is a tool. It's a gun that's used to kill scum. If you thought they could be scum at that point you should have placed a vote on them and layed pressure. You didn't do that. And you don't "reach" for reasons to vote people. You find scummy shit, and get them lynched based on that scummy shit. At that point if you suspected them, you should have layed pressure on them. You didn't do that at all.

Also don't blame yourself if you were on the Crimson wagon. His play was terrible.
Also here we go again: VOTE: DanelerH
Why do you still nullread Faer?

JJ that is #goodposting.

UNVOTE
Gonna unvote for now because I like your wall.
And I agree that Lux really seemed like he was posturing about both of us.

Yeah I agree on Light being scum.
I thought he cop told because of this:

LightYagami5 wrote:

Alisae wrote:

Also @LightYagami5 why are you sorry?

For voting you when I don't have the exact proof to do so.

But then Debi flipped cop. So that sorta makes me take back my TR on them. And considering that they've only been looking for SK/Wolf I'm okay with putting them down as mefia.

Also JJ did you consider the possibility that the SK/Wolf just didn't send in a kill?

I suppose it's possible, but I think it's really unlikely on the whole. I don't think it's worth considering since we still need to find that wolf anyway.

Also the fact that Lux was like "Yeah, Debi makes sense" followed by "It's either a TvS or a TvT" is rather inconsistant.
Overall good posting =)

PoE is a powerful tool children if you're confident in your reads.