Lesson Fourteen {Solved: Train}

This lesson is a bit different than those I usually do. Now, bear with me.
Two duelists are, well, dueling. The first player, let us call him Red, has the following deck:

The second, let us call him Blue, has this deck:

Now, like any user of Meta, Blue cheats. He will always go first (he made the coin only have heads), and he will always open with Tour Guide, Foolish, and Avarice; in other words, he will always have the material to Hunter Loop. Red, on the other hand, shuffles fairly.
Red and Blue duel 1000 times. APPROXIMATELY how many duels will Red have a hand at the end of Blue's first turn if Blue always Hunter Loops. Round to the nearest duel.

Last edited by Potus Mat on Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:11 am; edited 1 time in total

It depends entirely upon how many cards red sets summons or activates during his first turn each time but assuming he places no cards on the field, 1000 times. (Completely prepared to be totally wrong.)

But looking back at the question i see that Blue will always go first, therefore Red will always have a hand at the end of blues first turn. 1000 times.

150 times, as there is only 7,5% probablities to get maxx c or veiler

Both wrong. On Blue's first turn, he will Hunter Loop and destroy Red's hand, should he be allowed to. And Mister Train's math is wrong on several levels. Sorry.

So it would be EVERY duel...? So... Zero times? I'm not exactly clear on what a hunter loop is Professor Potus...

I might not be able to check this for like 6 hours, but pretty please with candy and gumdrops, explain a hunter loop for me, if not now, after someone answers the question? Hand destruction on a first turn basis sounds cool.

Dragonmaster Z warning for double double post. (and if you wonder yes i did wrote twice double, its not a typo).

hunter loop consist in first xyz a monster called zeamaines haing hunter on grave or the field, then use zeanmaity effect to sp wind up rat, then use rat effect to summon hunter, then use hunter effect and tribute zeinmaity and xyz another zeinmity from deck and repeat, usually you would take out like 3 cards from hand but since there is avarice you can return rats and zeins

So it would be every turn then? (My apologies for the double post, I just have too many afterthoughts, and I'm too much of a chatterbox.)

650 duels, he will open with a Maxx C or Veiler which means he can overcome the loop.

Other than that, 15 duels he will draw a PoA, yet in 5/6 possibility he will lose them too so that's 2,5 duels. 653 duels I say

Closer, but, still no. Sorry. =/

27.

No.
I am going to tear the happy right out of your soul.

8D

i guess 175

Could it be 5? Just a guess

or 2

eh... i get there is a 76 % probability to get any veiler or maxx c

so since its 1000 times, multiply by 10... 760 times?

All still incorrect. Although you are much closer, Mister Train.

750 times?

Nope. You could guess one thousand times, and still not get it correct.

790? used 4 decimals this time >->


EDIT ( didnt saw the nearest duel thingy, is 790

Last edited by train on Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:26 am; edited 1 time in total

Very close, Mister Train. Seems you just used the incorrect value at some point.

791

Hey, you and I both know you are not aloud to post answers. Especially wrong ones.

670 duels

Nope. You guys seem to be close, but pretty far...

the method i used says it will be 790 duels where you will draw atlest one of those, i found it somewhere else

the hypergeometric way says 577 duels will draw at least one card, im going with the one that wasnt discarded alredy and say it will be 577

Ding ding ding! We have a winner, ladies and gentlemen! 577! Now, if someone would lock this and transfer the funds to the dedicated Mister Train...

^^ I disagree, check this article :
http://yugioh.tcgplayer.com/db/article.asp?ID=2363

So %65 chance to get C or Veiler, then %1,5 for pot but that %1,5 is multiplied by 1/6 to make it the draw phase card.


Oh snap, I also should multiply 650 by 5:6 then... Which makes 541.66, and with the PoA added it's plus 2.5, making 544.27 --> 544.

So I claim it's 544 not 577


If anything, train probably didn't add PoA, which I did